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Who should be New York’s next governor?
- Antonio Delgado (D)
- Bruce Blakeman (R)
- Elise Stefanik (R)
- Kathy Hochul (D)
- Mike Lawler (R)
- Ritchie Torres (D)
- Someone else
As New York’s 2026 race for governor begins to take shape, a new Siena College poll shows voters are craving new leadership, though incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul still leads potential Democratic challengers by a wide margin.
The poll, released Tuesday, May 20, found that 36% of voters are ready to reelect Hochul, while 55% prefer “someone else,” a 10-point dip in support compared to last month. Her favorability rating sits at 44-46% and job approval at 50-46%—largely unchanged from April.
Among Democrats, Hochul remains the frontrunner in a hypothetical primary, with 46% support, pollsters found. Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado drew 12%, while Rep. Ritchie Torres garnered 10%. Both challengers remain relatively unknown to a majority of Democratic voters, according to pollster Steven Greenberg.
On the Republican side, Rep. Elise Stefanik has emerged as the early favorite, with 35% support in a potential primary matchup. That puts her ahead of Rep. Mike Lawler (22%) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (11%). Last month, before Stefanik was included, Blakeman narrowly led Lawler.
Hochul became New York’s 57th governor in August 2021 following the resignation of Andrew Cuomo, making her the first woman to hold the office in state history.
A Buffalo native, Hochul began her political career on the Hamburg Town Board before serving as Erie County Clerk and later as a member of Congress, representing Western New York. She was elected lieutenant governor in 2014 and served in that role under Cuomo until ascending to the governorship.
Since taking office, Hochul has focused on policies aimed at making the state more affordable, including tax relief for the middle class, inflation rebate checks, and expansions to the child tax credit.
Her administration has also emphasized universal free meals in public schools, increased funding for childcare, and environmental initiatives such as investments in state parks and climate resilience.
Stefanik, a Republican congresswoman representing New York’s 21st District, was elected to the House in 2014 at age 30, making her the youngest woman ever elected to Congress at that time.
A Harvard graduate, Stefanik previously worked in the George W. Bush administration and on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. She currently serves as the Chair of the House Republican Conference, making her the highest-ranking Republican woman in the House.
Initially considered a moderate, Stefanik has aligned closely with President Donald Trump in recent years. She opposed the certification of the 2020 election results and was a vocal critic of the former Biden administration.
Her policy priorities include border security, support for law enforcement, and opposition to antisemitism. Stefanik has also focused on issues affecting rural communities, such as agriculture and small business development.
Budget Measures See Broad Support
Despite mixed feelings about Hochul’s reelection prospects, some of her recent budget measures enjoy widespread bipartisan approval. More than 75% of voters—including majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents—support making it easier to cancel subscriptions online.
Similarly, providing free meals to all public school students is backed by nearly two-thirds of Republicans and more than nine in ten Democrats. Restrictions on student smartphone use during the school day also drew solid support across the board.
Other proposals, like inflation rebate checks and giving the governor more authority to make mid-year budget cuts, received plurality support. Voters were more divided on controversial items like repaying federal unemployment loans and using $10 million to cover state employees’ legal fees in cases involving federal retaliation.
Transgender Athlete Debate Splits Voters
The issue of transgender girls participating in school sports remains contentious. A plurality of voters (46%) said all school districts should prohibit transgender girls from competing on girls’ teams, while 22% supported universal participation and 23% favored leaving the decision up to individual districts.
Republicans and independents largely supported a ban, while Democrats were evenly split. Younger voters were more divided, while 54% of voters aged 55 and older favored a ban.
Trump Support Dips Slightly
Former President Donald Trump saw a slight drop in his numbers, with a favorability rating of 38-59% and job approval at 40-57%. While 79% of Republicans view him favorably, 82% of Democrats view him unfavorably. Independents are more divided, leaning slightly negative.
Odds & Ends: State of the State, Congestion Pricing & Migration
Voters remain split on congestion pricing. While 41% believe it should be eliminated as an unfair tax, 39% say it’s working and should stay. However, 46% agree with Hochul’s continued legal battle to defend the policy, compared to 36% siding with Trump’s call to end it.
On immigration, 45% support New York assisting with federal deportation efforts for undocumented migrants, while 38% oppose the idea—down slightly from previous months.
New Yorkers remain closely divided on whether the state is headed in the right direction (43%) or the wrong one (46%). Sentiment is even more pessimistic on the national level, with only 37% saying the country is on the right track.
Sen. Chuck Schumer’s favorability rating improved slightly this month to 42-48%, while the State Assembly and Senate both saw stable favorability ratings in the low 40s.
About the Poll
The Siena College Poll was conducted between Monday, May 12, and Thursday, May 15, and surveyed 805 registered voters across New York State. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
What Do You Think? Who should be New York’s next governor? Sound off in our poll above.
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